基层党员坚定“四个自信”的实证研究——以浙江省嵊泗县为例

“四个自信”是党的最新理论成果，其对基层党员的影响理应是深远的。通过问卷、访谈以及文献分析等方法调查了以浙江省嵊泗县为代表的基层党员对“四个自信”的坚定状况。调研结果表明：其在总体上的坚定情况是可喜的，但也存在不少问题。通过对比参与调查的基层党员和非党员对在中国特色社会主义理论、道路、制度和文化等方面的差异，从民生问题、贫富差距扩大趋势、理论宣传教育程度和发展实际问题等方面分析原因，并据此提出了相应对策。     

中国共产党百年文艺工作的发展历程、基本经验及当代启示

百年来，在马克思主义理论指导下，党的文艺工作始终坚守“以人民为中心”的初心，致力于民族解放与国家发展大局。从艰辛成长到曲折探索，到蓬勃发展，再到丰富创新，党的文艺工作有辉煌成就，也经历过坎坷曲折，它为百年中国革命、建设与改革事业提供了精神动力，注入了思想活力。党的百年文艺工作坚持以马克思主义文艺观为指导，坚定党在文艺工作中的领导地位，维护人民在文艺工作中的主体地位，并始终把握“弘扬主旋律”的文艺工作主题。昨日之史，今日之鉴。百年历程启示我们，在今后的文艺工作中，要坚持政治性与艺术性的统一、建设性与批判性的统一、娱乐性与教育性的统一，要善于定目标、举旗帜、聚能量，不断展现新时代文艺发展的新风貌。     

Survival and lifetime data analysis with a flexible class of distributions

We introduce a general class of continuous univariate distributions with positive support obtained by transforming the class of two-piece distributions. We show that this class of distributions is very flexible, easy to implement, and contains members that can capture different tail behaviours and shapes, producing also a variety of hazard functions. The proposed distributions represent a flexible alternative to the classical choices such as the log-normal, Gamma, and Weibull distributions. We investigate empirically the inferential properties of the proposed models through an extensive simulation study. We present some applications using real data in the contexts of time-to-event and accelerated failure time models. In the second kind of applications, we explore the use of these models in the estimation of the distribution of the individual remaining life.     

发展哲学五大基础性焦点问题的思考

发展哲学是改革发展时代马克思主义哲学时代化、中国化的具体形式和理论创新，已经成为哲学现代化的显学。但是在一些基础性学理建设上还存在诸多分歧。最主要的就是理论与应用、发展与倒退、发展与生存、发展性矛盾、生存意识与发展意识的关系等。坚持问题导向的原则，研究解决理论学术的逻辑结构问题，才能推进马克思主义发展哲学创新的进一步完善。     

Sexual Function in Women with Deep Endometriosis: Correlation with Quality of Life,Intensity of Pain,Depression, Anxiety,and Body Image

Objectives: We evaluated sexual function, quality of life and perceived body image of women with deep endometriosis in comparison to that of healthy women. Methods: The sample consisted of 41 women with deep endometriosis and 40 healthy women without endometriosis. Sexual, psychological and pain evaluation were performed. Results: The study evidenced that deep endometriosis has a significant impact on sexuality and body image. Conclusions: An integrated and patient-centered approach to medical and psychological and sexual issues is suggested.     

Sexual dysfunction predicts depressive symptoms during the first 2 years postpartum

Background

The association between sexual function and depression has yet to be examined in a prospective cohort study with prolonged postpartum follow-up.

依赖中的资源争夺:中小学生减负的困境及出路

中小学生减负问题是新中国成立以来，我国教育发展过程中力图解决但却难以根治的历史性问题。依赖中的资源争夺所引发的校际与校内关系的复杂存在，影响了减负工作的深入推进，成为中小学生减负路上的主要拦路虎。突破减负困境，可通过推动基础教育从传统静态、集中走向现代动态、均衡发展，确保义务教育阶段公办教育的公共服务能力，重新思考民办与公办教育的关系及功能定位，形成多元主体参与和共建共享的现代教育治理体系，构建低竞争、低控制、真评价的教育生态环境等举措合力助推。希望以此为我国中小学生减负工作的有效开展提供行动借鉴和理论参考。     

中国基本医疗保险的实际参保率及其分布特征:基于多源数据的分析

全民覆盖是基本医疗保险降低国民医疗费用负担的前提条件。中国基本医疗保险是否实现了全民覆盖仍存在争议。本文利用多源调查数据,分析了我国基本医疗保险实际参保率及其分布特征。不同来源的数据基本证实,2015-2016年,中国仍有超过10%的国民没有参加任何一项基本医疗保险制度。其中,城镇居民、非农户口和没有户口的居民、东北地区、年轻人、儿童、未就业人群、低收入人群、在校学生以及流动人口基本医疗保险实际参保率更低。城乡居民实行自愿参保,因管理部门分割、信息系统不统一导致的重复参保以及因财政补贴制度导致的户籍地参保等制度设计,是导致基本医疗保险未能实现全民覆盖的根源。要实现基本医疗保险全民覆盖,解决国民医疗后顾之忧,未来我国基本医疗保险应实行强制参保、以家庭为单元参保、常住地参保,建立全国统一的基本医疗保险信息系统,并鼓励发展补充性医疗保障制度。     

Tests for time series of counts based on the probability-generating function

We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples.     

A new infinitely divisible discrete distribution with applications to count data modeling

A new discrete distribution involving geometric and discrete Pareto as special cases is introduced. The distribution possesses many interesting properties like decreasing hazard rate, zero vertex uni-modality, over-dispersion, infinite divisibility and compound Poisson representation, which makes the proposed distribution well suited for count data modeling. Other issues including closure property under minima, comparison of its distribution tail with other distributions via actuarial indices are discussed. The method of proportion and maximum likelihood method are presented for parameter estimation. Finally the performance of the proposed distribution over other classical and newly proposed infinitely divisible distributions are discussed.